Showing posts with label Ethan Premock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ethan Premock. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Tuesday June 21, 2016 by @mocktrade

#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Tuesday June 21, 2016 by @mocktradeSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


















Over the past couple of weeks I mentioned that if not for the June rate decision being a possible game changer my bias for NFLX was more on the bearish side due to the auction chart favoring a move/breach below the key 92.00 support.

NFLX has now breached below the 92.00 support (and did so today) which I now expect NFLX to continue lower while/if holding below weekly value resistance for the remainder of the week just below 93.50 with 95.15-95.70 zone as the line in sand for sellers.

If above 95.70 either pre or post the Brexit vote I will then look at 98s as a potential upside and very important target for buyers to get through in order for me to fully change to a bullish bias; however for now or until if/then or until/if first above 95.70 my current bearish bias will remain with potential to reach the 78.6% Fib target at 89.80 before the bottom of the wedge at 88.45-87.95 zone, which will be a most hold to avoid a possible NFLX disaster with risk of a move below 80s/79s.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

Monday, June 13, 2016

#AAPL Bias & Levels Update for Monday June 13, 2016 by @mocktrade

#AAPL Bias & Levels Update for Monday June 13, 2016 by @mocktradeSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




















AAPL continues to have issues getting and holding above 100 following the Warren Buffett headline from almost a full month ago, which the chart is telling me AAPL is very likely now on its way to 95.50-95.30 zone while/if holding below 98.45 with 100 as the line in sand (LIS) for sellers. I am also thinking that if not for the FOMC rate decision this week the auction is definitely suggesting a 93s/92s retest (93.95 & 92.40) before making another attempt to get/hold back above the key 100 level.

While waiting on FOMC rate decision AAPL may also consolidate between 100s and 95s; if so the move to 93s/92s may not come until after rate decision, which I would prefer rather than occurring before rate decision in order to confirm a solid bullish bias in the weeks ahead. If 93s/92s area does not hold post FOMC rate decision I will expect odds to be more in favor for AAPL heading to 82s before the very important 76s/75s target area.

Currently I am holding a new AAPL Strangle with a Jan 2017 expiration which was engaged last week for the FOMC rate decision. If the bearish scenario just mentioned does play out to the 76s/75s area I will most likely be buying with both hands once/if reached, or if AAPL reacts positively to the FOMC rate decision I will ideally then like to see AAPL with a daily close above the first key low volume area (LVA) at 102s-104s zone to increase the potential for the Call side of the Strangle reaching its primary objective with AAPL getting/holding above 110 before yearend.  

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

#GPRO Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

#GPRO Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


For GPRO I cannot get bullish until a Daily close above Daily center Sigma +41s, and in order to reach 41s GPRO must first get through resistance at 38s and also get through the low volume area (LVA) just below 40.10.


Unless getting and holding above 41s post the FOMC rate decision GPRO is likely certain to test the IPO price at 28s and possibly lower to the -3Sigma target at 21s once/if breaching below 31.35.


Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#TSLA Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

#TSLA Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


Like NFLX TSLA is also on the move to the upside ahead of the FOMC rate decision and if holding above 255s/54s TSLA has potential to reach 265s/66s then 270s pre-FOMC. If so and if Long TSLA the 270s target is the spot (if reached) to consider scaling some profits &/or getting some protection on to protect profits via short-term Puts.

The TSLA Daily +3Sigma target is currently at 277s but unlikely to get achieved before FOMC tomorrow which is why the need for protection might be needed at or just below 270s if the rate decision does not favor more upside for the overall market.


If below 255s/54s either pre or post FOMC rate decision the line in sand  (LIS) for TSLA is at 248s-243s zone which includes Daily center Sigma and is a must hold in order to have chance of reaching the +3Sigma target at 277s post FOMC.


Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

#NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


On Monday I was thinking NFLX would remain in more of a sideways pattern between 97s and 93s ahead of the FOMC rate decision but instead NFLX is now on the move above 97s.

On Monday I also mentioned NFLX would have to get and hold above Daily center Sigma at 105s to breach the current downtrend post the FOMC rate decision, which is still case.


In order to now reach Daily center Sigma at 105s NFLX will need to either get above first resistance at 103.20 and/or hold above last week’s value area (VA) +101.30 with 97s as line in sand (LIS) post FOMC tomorrow. If not -3Sigma will become a target at 80s once/if first below the 84.30 support. 



Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednsday, September 16, 2015

#AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednsday, September 16, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


AAPL is still holding above last’s week’s value area high (VAH) +113.30 post Monday’s iphone sales headline and now seems to just be stalled while in wait mode for the FOMC rate decision.

If not for the potential of a rate decision game changer tomorrow my bias would be in definite favor to the Long side while holding above Daily center Sigma and last week’s value area low (VAL) at 111s/110s; with potential to reach the first resistance I mentioned on Monday at 122s, which is also a +3Sigma target.


However unless above 125s/126s (if a breach above 122s post rate decision) my bias will definitely flip to bearish with potential to reach the -3Sigma target at 101s/100s especially once/if below 109.50 then below the low volume area (LVA) at 104s.


Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


CLV5 is also in a consolidation wait mode pattern like the overall stock market ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision. CLV5 is now in a perfect set up for a USO strangle while between 46s-43s and especially while trading at/near 44.  


The USO strangle is also being confirmed at the Daily center Sigma and a 50/50 scenario for either 17s or 11s. If CLV5 breaks above 46.05 then above 48s post the FOMC rate decision I will favor a bullish scenario, or if a breach first below 43.35 then below 40s I will favor a bearish scenario.


Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015

#ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


ESZ5 remains in a macro sideways, consolidation, and wait mode pattern ahead of the FOMC rate decision which unfortunately means a very long and boring week until Thursday. However while volatility is low this is a great week to get positioned before the overall market resolves itself post the FOMC rate decision, which I am doing so through several new strangle positions in SPY, USO, and several individual stocks as well.

I am personally not in the camp the Fed can or will hike rates in an environment post a pre-market flash crash which came on the heels of major global economic growth concerns especially out of China. I am more in the belief the Fed got greedy late 2014 and early 2015 when the US stock market was at/near ATHs and missed the boat/window for a first rate hike. Most likely the Fed did not want to cause any stock market concerns throughout the holidays and finish on a high note in 2014.

Although I expect a "no" rate hike it is only a personal bias and I have no idea how the market will react to a rate hike or not; this is why I am not positioning myself to one side. Even if there is a rate hike it is highly unlikely a +.25 rate hike will ignite the Fed & central bank bubble burst.That day is coming and likely in the very near future regardless of a rate hike this week or not or even in December.

If the market goes in full bull mode post the rate hike decision I will be looking to lock in most profits from the Call side of my strangles ahead of the key resistance for EZU5 at 2032s/33s.  

Once the Call side profits are achieved I will the be looking for macro lower highs to form below the 2032s/33s resistance as confirmation ATHs will most likely be negated and the upside post the rate decision will just be an initial reaction and what I hope will also be the beginning to the end of the artificial "bad econ data is good for stocks" era. It is going to take more than a "no" .25pt rate hike to justify new ATHs with all the global growth uncertainty. 



If the immediate reaction is bearish I will have an eye on the October 2014 low before ESZ5 heads to the Daily -3Sigma target and below 1800 to lock in profits from the Put side of all my strangle positions.



Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC


      

Monday, September 14, 2015

#AMZN Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

#AMZN Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


AMZN  is now at/near to where it was trading in a sideways pattern just before the most recent market sell off/pull-back; and seems to now be in definite wait mode for FOMC rate decision.

The key area/zone I have an eye on is 512s which is last week's value area low (VAL) and Daily center Sigma at 510s

If holding above the 512s-510s zone post FOMC rate decision there will be potential to head to the first upside target at 538s-542s zone before the +3Sigma target at 568s-570s zone.

If a breach below 510 the lower targets are at 490s, 476s/75s, then the -3Sigma target at 452s.




Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

#FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


For me FB is back to being dead/boring money and seems to always be while trading above 88. However regardless of being boring FB has definitely been one of the strongest &/or did not have much bearish follow through compared to most stocks during the most recent market sell off/pull-back.

Post FOMC rate decision I will have an eye on Daily center Sigma which is also last week's value area low (VAL) at 89.30 to help determine a bias and the potential for continuing higher to the +3Sigma target at 99s/100s once/if first getting above the 93.60 target and then also above 95.40.

If failing to hold above Daily center Sigma the next area which must hold is 85.50 otherwise -3Sigma becomes a potential target at 79s.



Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

#NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


NFLX is definitely looking like it is going to need some help from a favorable FOMC rate hike decision especially while trading below last week's value area/-97.45, otherwise the lower targets for NFLX are at 91s, 87s, then -3Sigma target at 78s/77s.

If getting back in value NFLX would then have to make it through and above the other side of value at 101.30 in order to have chance of breaching the current downtrend by getting back above Daily center Sigma at 105s/106s





Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

#AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


AAPL is getting a nice headline pop today but in order for AAPL to continue higher with ease post the FOMC rate hike decision APPL will need a Daily close above the key resistance at 122.40-122.80 zone which is the bottom of the previous balanced area before the most recent earnings (ERs) drop which is also Daily +3Sigma as well.

Post the FOMC rate hike decision later this week the first key area of support I will have an eye on is last week's value area high (VAH) at 113.30. As long as holding above 113.30 the odds will increase for higher in AAPL this week.

If below 113.30 the line in sand (LIS) is the other side of value at 110.65. If a Daily close below value this week the Daily Sigma is currently showing a -3Sigma target at 99s; however AAPL will also have to get through the low volume area (LVA) at 104s for chance and potential of achieving the -3Sigma target at 99s.      



Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



Not expecting any major and/or meaningful moves in any index ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision this week. ESZ5 +30-50pts or -30-50pts from where ESZ5 is current trading should and will likely mean absolutely nothing ahead of this week’s FOMC due to the potential of a rate hike or not.

I still find it completely hilarious (as I have mentioned before in a previous blog post) at how the entire/overall US stock market remains 100% at the mercy to a +1/8th or +1/4th (.25) point interest rate hike. I cannot stress enough that a .25pt rate increase will have no dramatic negative impact to the US economy nor will it have any impact to the 82% of Americans who do not participate in the US stock market.

Not only will a +.25 rate hike have zero impart to the US economy a no .25pt rate hike this week (or in December) will not help any of the concerns and uncertainty in global economies especially China. All a .25pt rate hike is to US investors and trades is the likelihood and potential end to easy/free money and the beginning of the end to the “bad econ data is good for stocks” era.

My current thoughts are Shorts are going to cover no matter if the Fed does a rate hike or not due to no rate hike is good for stocks and if a rate hike CNBC will then be none stop that a +.25pt rate hike equals and suggest the US economy is now in the all clear.

Even if the initial reaction to rate hike is bearish I still think the market will find a reason to rally before a real and meaningful trend is determined. This means what will matter and be more important to me is the follow through in either direction and/or rejection reversal post the rate hike decision more so than the initial reaction.

For now the key ESZ5 areas I have an eye on pre-FOMC are 1970s-1975s zone and 1918s-1915s zone, and while in between these areas ESZ5 and the indexes will be in wait mode for FOMC rate decision.

Post FOMC the only chance of follow through to new ATHs is once/if a Daily close above 2032s/33s. A rejection of 2032s/33s or if macro lower highs begin to form below 2032s/33s my macro bias will favor a real correction of 10% or more which will occur in the coming weeks and will also occur during regular trading sessions rather than as a pre-market short-lived flash crash.

If no Daily close above 2032s/33s post the FOMC rate hike decision I will be looking for a Monday pre-market flash crash low test followed by an October low test as well once if below the 1860s-1850s support zone.




ES/S&P500 emini Futures still has a Daily -3Sigma target below -1800 but (and of course) there will definitely be potential for that to change if EZU5 turns to full bull mode post FOMC rate hike decision.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, September 3, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, September 3, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Now that the dust is settling a bit after Monday’s rally I will be keeping a close eye on CLV5 and looking for a new swing trade &/or strangle opportunity for CLV5/#USO.

My bias is currently more on the neutral side while above 43.00 and below 47.80 and unless a breach of either in the coming days I will most likely start favoring a strangle trade. If above 47.80 I will consider a new swing Short at/near 50.40-51.10 zone or a swing Long at/near 41.85-41.20 zone. 

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Monday, August 31, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, August 31, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, August 31, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



CLV5 bias is now neutral while between 45.30 and 42.85-42.50 zone. If above 45.30 before lower the first upside target that is on the radar is at 46.80 which is a -23.6% Fib target and DR1 as well. Once/if above 46.80 the next upside target I will have an eye on is at 47.95-48.40 zone.

On Friday I did get a profit hedge on to my #USO Long via Call options at the 44.70ish target via short-term Puts which I will hold while/if remaining below 45.30. If above 45.30 I will exit the hedge and then look to re-hedge at higher targets.

If below 42.50 I will definitely keep the hedge on for a potential move to 42.30-41.80 zone where I will look to start scaling out of the Puts/hedge followed by another scale at 41.20-40.90.


Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, August 28, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, August 28, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, August 28, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend





Yesterday I tweeted (@mocktrade) that I started a new longer-term swing #USO Long position via Call options and I would add to the position if CLV5 continued trending lower to 36s/35s. I also mentioned I would be more on the bullish side if CLV5 first moved above 41.00 which was the case yesterday.

41.00 is now first support but in order to remain bullish CLV5 must now get and hold above last week’s value area (VA) +43.30 which was basically yesterday’s high. If so I will then have an eye on 44.40-44.70 zone to hedge my current #USO profit with shorter-term #USO Puts. Ideally I would like to go into the weekend with this hedge.

If CLV5 does breach below 41.00 today and then if also breaching below 40.60-40.40 zone my thinking will then go back to adding to the #USO Calls at 36s/35s especially once/if below 39.60-39.30 zone. 

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Monday, August 24, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 24, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 24, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


On Friday I mentioned that I was thinking a zig zag corrective pattern would be achieved to 1958s for ESU5 sometime this week. I definitely did not think ESU5 would be trading well below 1958 or anywhere at/near the 1900 handle before the cash open Monday morning. However over the past several weeks if I did not say it once I said it 100 times that the day is nearing for the “reality” that US stocks cannot go up forever on the heels of a dovish Fed and the “bad economic data is good for stocks” era.

I now expect all the investors and traders who ignored the fundamentals of both US and Global economic data while the US stock market went straight up since the hope of QE3 back in mid-2012 will now be the ones who tweet or post on blogs the future fundamentals of companies like AAPL, FB, AMZN, TSLA, GPRO, and many others in hope that their stock positions will at least return back to their entry price to get out.

I also expect all the CNBC guest over the past few years who have been piggy backing off a dovish Fed will now be the same who go on TV and say “all signs where there for a crash due to the artificial environment the Fed and central banks created”.

Unfortunately for those who became investors or traders post 2011 where brain washed and trained US stocks will never correct again and investing/trading is like taking candy from a baby; these will be the first to go and out of the bizz followed by at least 50% of the “BTD” chat rooms as well.

Below is an ES chart I posted on twitter during the last week of 2014 in which I mentioned (and have done so many times since then) the profile since the announcement of QE3 is a very thin profile above a macro balanced area compared to the rallies just before the dot.com and housing/financial crisis bubble bursts. This means that when the time comes (which could be now) the drop from the QE3 and/or central bank bubble burst is likely to be much deeper than the previous two bubbles.

During both the dot.com and housing/financial crisis bubbles each formed a macro lower high (red arrows) before their big macro drop/flush. This central back bubble burst is likely to be no different and if so the scenario I am will be looking for is if ESU5 does not have a daily or weekly close above 1958s this week with 2020s as final or line in the sand for the bears I will expect the October low to get breached. If so ES will likely head to the low volume area at mid-1700s where it will bounce and should retest the October low as resistance. If the October low holds as resistance ES will form a macro lower high before heading to the macro balanced area at 1600s/1500s.





Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, August 20, 2015

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, August 20, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

If CLV5 can get through the low volume area (LVA) above 43.30 I have an eye on a potential new swing Short via USO Puts just below the CLV5 44.00 level. If reached I will build/add to the position at 44.35 and 44.80 with a stop just above CLV5 45.00.

If CLV5 is unable to reach 44s I will then expect more downside to mid-41s then 39s.































Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, August 19, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



ESU5 SPY S&P500 went from several weeks of a lower high formation to a macro wedge this week within the 2015 eight month boring range and did so on hope for no ¼ point rate hike in September due to more bad news out of China, Oil making new lows this week, and the lowered guidance from Walmart yesterday.

However and even though breaching the lower high formation the reality of both US and global bearish divergences finally seems to be impacting the potential for new ATHs, which for me that confirmation is not coming from today’s (Aug 19th) morning sell off but rather due to the fact ESU5 continues and has now failed at getting and holding above Daily center Sigma several times so far in the 2nd half of 2015. New ATHs are now likely not to be seen unless a very dovish Fed appears (??).

























I continue to find it extremely funny (in fact hilarious) at how the entire US stock market is solely and only dependent on a ¼ point rate hike in September (or not) now that 2015 earnings have failed to lead the S&P500 to new ATHs. Everyone knows a ¼ or even a ½ point rate hike after six years of zero interest rates will have little to no impact on the economy and/or any impact to the day to day/pay check to check person which is about 82% of Americans.

What a small rate hike will affect is the easy money the US stock market has made including all of the easy and artificial 800+ S&P500 points on the heels of the “bad is good for stocks” QE3 era. This tells me the other 18% of Americans who participate in investing/trading (including 401ks) could care less about the overall economy and is only concerned about the easy money coming to an end or not, otherwise the reality of global economies, global stock markets correcting, and low oil prices would already have the S&P500 well into a long overdue correction from extremely (and artificial) overbought conditions.

QE3 was nothing more than a way to artificially inflate assets for the “wealth effect” through 401ks which now has the US stock market addicted to the Fed. The “wealth effect” has been so important ever since unemployment hit +9% that I will be willing to bet the government would not waste five years and waste resources to blame a “flash crash” on one trader if a “flash crash” now happened in the opposite direction and was a “flash melt up” for an even better “wealth effect”.

For now the S&P500 remains out of reality due to its Fed addiction but the reality is “reality will catch up” one day just like when realty returned after every American became an expert real estate investor overnight back in 2004-2008. This does not mean stocks like AAPL, FB, TSLA, NFLX, GPRO, DIS, and even TWTR do not have a fundamental “Growth” story and future; it just means these stocks will correct technically regardless of fundamentals when the overall market corrects which is definitely not a matter of “if” and only a matter of “when” reality returns to US stocks.

For the remainder of the week or post Fed minutes I will have an eye on 2088s-2094s zone and 2061s/60s for ESU5, for IWM 121.30 and 118, for NQU5 4546s and 4471s/70s, and for AAPL (a huge market leader) 116.60 and 114.45 then 112.




Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, August 14, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Friday, August 14, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Friday, August 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


ESU5 Daily center Sigma is now at 2091s and until a daily close above the Daily center Sigma and also a close above the key resistance zone I mentioned yesterday at 2096s-2098s the lower high formation remains intact. However yesterday I also mentioned 2074s as a key support and if defended the bull case from Wednesday’s reversal rally will likely or should be confirmed.

Buyers did protect 2074s yesterday during RTH but then failed to reach and close above Daily center Sigma which was at 2093s at yesterday’s cash open. Today I will be looking for the same but today’s support I am eyeing is at 2070s/69s unless the Bulls and/or RTH BTDers succeed in getting ESU5 back in value/+2078s; if so the zone which must get breached in order to head towards Daily center Sigma is 2083s-2085s.

























If below 2070s/69s before higher the final or line in sand (LIS) for the bulls to defend is 2061s otherwise Wednesday’s rally will be negated and the lower high formation will most likely continue with follow through heading into next week.

Today’s lower high formation threshold for IWM is at 120.75-121.35 zone with a new lower target at 117.40s now that the previous 118s target was reached this week. For NQUS the lower high formation threshold is at 4545s/4546s.



Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

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